Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) saw instant volatility on March 11 amid hope that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could find a diplomatic solution.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Hope rises — but so do Bitfinex shorts

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD briefly surging $1,400 before reversing to consolidate below $40,000 Friday.

The move followed fresh comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who in a meeting with Belarusian counterpart Aleksandr Lukashenko said that there had been “positive shifts” in the Ukraine dynamic.

“There are certain positive shifts, negotiators on our side tell me,” he said, quoted by Reuters and others.

Bitcoin, already known for not “liking” escalations in armed conflicts, immediately rebounded in line with European and U.S. stock markets. Germany’s DAX bounced 2.6% on the news, while S&P 500 futures were up 1.1% before the Wall Street open.

At the time of writing, volatility remained on BTC/USD, with bulls attempting to crack $40,000 resistance more convincingly.

Previously, however, warnings had come from those watching rapidly mounting shorts on major exchange Bitfinex — a classic sign that short-timeframe downside should be imminent.

These were still climbing at the time of writing, visible on both daily and lower timeframes and at their highest levels since July 2021.

BTC/USD shorts 1-day candle chart (Bitfinex). Source: TradingView

The push to $40,200 local highs caused a moderate liquidation of short positions on derivatives platforms, data from monitoring resource Coinglass showed.

Crypto liquidations chart. Source: Coinglass

Traders remain cool

Bitcoin still remained short of the upper end of its established trading range, with the area north of $42,000 proving impossible to hold for long throughout 2022.

Related: Buying big? Nearly 30K BTC leaves Coinbase Pro in 3 transactions

The latest price action was a boon for some traders, however, with popular Twitter account Anbessa telling followers that all was going according to plan.

Fellow trader Pierre meanwhile highlighted a rising support wedge that bulls should ideally preserve going forward.